Prognosis prediction of uterine cervical cancer using changes in the histogram and texture features of apparent diffusion coefficient during definitive chemoradiotherapy

Objectives We investigated prospectively whether, in cervical cancer (CC) treated with concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT), the Apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) histogram and texture parameters and their change rates during treatment could predict prognosis. Methods Fifty-seven CC patients treated with CCRT at our institution were included. They underwent MRI scans up to four times during the treatment course (1st, before treatment [n = 41], 2nd, at the start of image-guided brachytherapy (IGBT) [n = 41], 3rd, in the middle of IGBT [n = 27], 4th, after treatment [n = 53]). The entire tumor was manually set as the volume of interest (VOI) manually in the axial images of the ADC map by two radiologists. A total of 107 image features (morphology features 14, histogram features 18, texture features 75) were extracted from the VOI. The recurrence prediction values of the features and their change rates were evaluated by Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis. The presence or absence of local and distant recurrence within two years was set as an outcome. The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was also calculated. Results The change rates in kurtosis between the 1st and 3rd, and 1st and 2nd MRIs, and the change rate in grey level co-occurrence matrix_cluster shade between the 2nd and 3rd MRIs showed particularly high predictive powers (area under the ROC curve = 0.785, 0.759, and 0.750, respectively), which exceeded the predictive abilities of the parameters obtained from preor post-treatment MRI only. The change rate in kurtosis between the 1st and 2nd MRIs had good reliability (ICC = 0.765). Conclusions The change rate in ADC kurtosis between the 1st and 2nd MRIs was the most reliable parameter, enabling us to predict prognosis early in the treatment course.