Probabilistic connectivity assessment of bridge networks under seismic hazard considering the spatial correlation of ground motion-induced damage

To develop disaster mitigation measures in earthquake-prone regions, it is essential to evaluate the deterioration of bridge network functionality considering the damage to individual bridges. This paper presents a novel framework for probabilistic connectivity assessment of bridge networks under seismic hazard considering the spatial correlation of ground motion-induced damage. In the proposed methodology, the connectivity is quantified as the probability that a path does not exist between origin-destination pairs after a seismic event. As an illustrative example, an hypothetical bridge network in Owase City, Japan, affected by the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake is analyzed. The effects of the spatial correlation of ground motion-induced damage on the road network are investigated. By applying the proposed method, the probabilistic connectivity in the analyzed road network can be easily estimated. The connectivity depends strongly on the seismic hazard and the spatial correlation associated with the damage state of bridges in the network.