Preoperative scoring system for predicting early adjacent vertebral fractures after Balloon Kyphoplasty

Background: Adjacent vertebral fracture (AVF) is a major complication following Balloon Kyphoplasty (BKP). There is no scoring system for predicting AVF using only preoperative elements. The purposes of this study were to develop a scoring system for predicting early AVF after BKP based on preoperative factors and to investigate the appropriate surgical indication for BKP. Methods: Of 220 patients who underwent BKP at a single institution since 2011, 65 patients over the age of 60 who had undergone a standing whole spine X-ray preoperatively were enrolled. Factors affecting the occurrence of early AVF were examined. A scoring system was created consisting of the factors exhibiting significant differences, and the correlation between the total score and the incidence of early AVF was investigated. Results: Twenty of the 65 patients (30.8%) had early AVF. In a univariate analysis, age, previous vertebral fracture, pelvic tilt, and Local kyphosis significantly influenced early AVF. In a multivariate logistic regression analysis, age had an odds ratio of 1.136 (95% CI 1.001–1.289), previous vertebral fractures 4.181 (1.01–17.309), and Local kyphosis 1.103 (1.021–1.191). The scoring system was set as follows: ①Age (<75 years: 0 points(P), 75years≦: 1P), ②The number of previous vertebral fractures (0: 0 P, 1: 1P, 2: 2P, 3 or more: 3P), and ③Local kyphosis (<10°: 0P, 10°≦: 1P). There was a correlation between the total score and the incidence of early AVF (r = 0.812, ∗P = 0.05). The incidence of early AVF was 6.4% (2 cases/31 cases) for a score of ≦1P and 54.5% (18 cases/33 cases) for a score of ≧2P. Conclusions: There was a correlation between the total score and the incidence of early AVF. A score of 1 point or less may represent the appropriate surgical indication for BKP.